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Dec 7, 2012
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the fiscal cliff deal is done, uncertainties are removed from the economy and we get 4% or 5% growth rates. maybe the fed's hand would be forced if you had a precipitous drop in the unemployment rate down to 5 1/2% or 6.5% but they're about to do something extraordinary here, right? next week they're going to announce this new thing and they're going to get rid of operation twist and they're going to replace it probably with outright purchases. and it could be that they're buying $85 billion a month in long-term securities. >> okay. where are they getting the money to buy that? >> they're making it. >> they're just printing it. >> not even printing it. you wouldn't have to print it today, it's an electronic thing. they're typing it essentially. >> will the resolution of the fiscal cliff and even some progress on our long-term problems, knowing that at best we're just putting off austerity, sooner or later it's coming, right? higher taxes and lower government spending, right? you combine that with reinhardt, rogoff and the idea we're in a 2% world all of a sudden, would doing the fisc
the fiscal cliff deal is done, uncertainties are removed from the economy and we get 4% or 5% growth rates. maybe the fed's hand would be forced if you had a precipitous drop in the unemployment rate down to 5 1/2% or 6.5% but they're about to do something extraordinary here, right? next week they're going to announce this new thing and they're going to get rid of operation twist and they're going to replace it probably with outright purchases. and it could be that they're buying $85 billion a...
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Nov 30, 2012
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economy in 2013? i will give you a couple of choices. wry want to do fiscal cliff. is europe still -- could it be a huge threat? have we -- have we moved far enough along there that -- with sort of dealing with it where that is not going to be the threat that we saw? >> for business in my mind, the threat is not that europe will come apart. they will hold it together. but the economy is not growing. export markets are weak. they are weak in eastern asia, too, except for china. china is going to be way down where it was. probably 7% next year. i think that -- the -- the u.s. has been a very successful exporter. these mark et cetera are going to be soft next year. i think that's going to hurt us. >> i rye to -- i mean, i'm trying to think -- it just for 2013, the biggest threat to the u.s. economy, first i figured -- the biggest threat for 2013 is the same as the biggest threat for 2014, '15, '16. not dealing with entitlements. that's what i think it is. >> did you said you took the fiscal cliff off the table. >> took that off. i'm talking about long-term, $87 trillio
economy in 2013? i will give you a couple of choices. wry want to do fiscal cliff. is europe still -- could it be a huge threat? have we -- have we moved far enough along there that -- with sort of dealing with it where that is not going to be the threat that we saw? >> for business in my mind, the threat is not that europe will come apart. they will hold it together. but the economy is not growing. export markets are weak. they are weak in eastern asia, too, except for china. china is...
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Dec 5, 2012
12/12
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cliff the thing we always continued to look at is our economy wanting it to continue to grow. today we'll have small family owned businesses in there talking about ways that we can protect the family business, continue to grow and at the same time make sure we solve this fiscal cliff. each and every day as we walk the halls you continue to ask the question. we want the answers solving fiscal cliff. we put be a offer on the table. the president now has to engage. i think the next 72 hours are critical. he sits back and continues to play politics, that will give you answer of where we're going. this is an opportunity for this country to lead. this is an opportunity for the president to lead. >> as fiscal cliff negotiations and debate continues, i think it's important to remember that washington doesn't have a revenue problem. it has a spending problem. under this administration under president obama we have seen record deficits and a record debt accumulate and yet he keeps demanding that we raise taxes -- >> those are some of the republican leadership in the house as you can see
cliff the thing we always continued to look at is our economy wanting it to continue to grow. today we'll have small family owned businesses in there talking about ways that we can protect the family business, continue to grow and at the same time make sure we solve this fiscal cliff. each and every day as we walk the halls you continue to ask the question. we want the answers solving fiscal cliff. we put be a offer on the table. the president now has to engage. i think the next 72 hours are...
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Dec 4, 2012
12/12
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plus we'll hop behind the wheel of auto nation to talk sales, the economy and of course the fiscal cliff. wooohooo....hahaahahaha! oh...there you go. wooohooo....hahaahahaha! i'm gonna stand up to her! no you're not. i know. you know ronny folks who save hundreds of dollars switching to geico sure are happy. how happy are they jimmy? happier than a witch in a broom factory. get happy. get geico. fifteen minutes could save you fifteen percent or more. two years ago, the people of bp made a commitment to the gulf. bp has paid over twenty-three billion dollars to help those affected and to cover cleanup costs. today, the beaches and gulf are open, and many areas are reporting their best tourism seasons in years. and bp's also committed to america. we support nearly 250,000 jobs and invest more here than anywhere else. we're working to fuel america for generations to come. our commitment has never been stronger. well, having a ton of locations doesn't hurt. and a santa to boot! [ chuckles ] right, baby. oh, sir. that is a customer. oh...sorry about that. [ male announcer ] break from the hol
plus we'll hop behind the wheel of auto nation to talk sales, the economy and of course the fiscal cliff. wooohooo....hahaahahaha! oh...there you go. wooohooo....hahaahahaha! i'm gonna stand up to her! no you're not. i know. you know ronny folks who save hundreds of dollars switching to geico sure are happy. how happy are they jimmy? happier than a witch in a broom factory. get happy. get geico. fifteen minutes could save you fifteen percent or more. two years ago, the people of bp made a...
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Nov 29, 2012
11/12
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cliff for very long the economy will almost certainly go into a recession. if it didn't, the economists are going to have to revise all our models. so i think it could occur if we go very long. and if we do that, the question is who's going do that. i think the republicans get a lot to alabama. on the other hand it would also derail his second term. he wouldn't have get anything done. they both have a lot to lose. and the question is who's going to compromise and who's going to swerve first in this high stakes game of chicken. >> greg, one thing that i hear all the time from democrats is that the clinton years were really good because of the clinton tax rates. one of the things in the fiscal cliff is going back to the clinton era tax rates for everybody. now, i know there's sequestration and payroll tax. there's a lot of other things in there, but we did okay with those tax rates. why did we just assume there'd be a recession. >> let me mention a couple of things from the 1990s that are very different from today. first, there was a lot. there was an implicit
cliff for very long the economy will almost certainly go into a recession. if it didn't, the economists are going to have to revise all our models. so i think it could occur if we go very long. and if we do that, the question is who's going do that. i think the republicans get a lot to alabama. on the other hand it would also derail his second term. he wouldn't have get anything done. they both have a lot to lose. and the question is who's going to compromise and who's going to swerve first in...
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Dec 5, 2012
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>> merry fiscal cliff-mas to you. you're going to see more bouncing like a yo yo, on the fundamental story, the models we have pointing going into 1q, the reason, it sort of rhymes in the spirit of the season. you have non-opec demand growing, global demand slowing, it's not snowing, and down is where we're going. the next big data point is probably the iaea report in february. and if that implicates more progress toward an iranian bomb, there's significant risk to look to the upside. in the meantime, you have a lot of other issues beyond the fiscal cliff. debt ceiling issues, if not resolved in the negotiation looming. and relatively long stocks here in the u.s. perhaps the most interesting part, becky, is to look at the convergence between light and heavy grades here in north america. we have a lot of light oil. and we're actually potentially short of heavy oil. so seeing convergence within that downward trend means there could be a bid for heavier. >> you would guess that would certainly hurt demand. >> sure. offse
>> merry fiscal cliff-mas to you. you're going to see more bouncing like a yo yo, on the fundamental story, the models we have pointing going into 1q, the reason, it sort of rhymes in the spirit of the season. you have non-opec demand growing, global demand slowing, it's not snowing, and down is where we're going. the next big data point is probably the iaea report in february. and if that implicates more progress toward an iranian bomb, there's significant risk to look to the upside. in...
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Dec 4, 2012
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moynihan says that while business leaders are changing their behavior ahead of the f k fiscal cliff, consumers are not. one out of every two households is a customer. that's why it's great gauge of the economy. so far american consumers are still spending away and he says that you can thank at least in part an improving housing market for that. carl? >> all right. thank you very much, becky. great stuff. thank you for sticking around. >> thank you. >> sticking with the cliff, governors are set to meet with president obama and congressional leaders. the meeting coming one day after the white house rejected a republican plan for averting the cliff. chi chief washington correspondent john harwood is outside of the white house this morning. how do business leaders change the equation? >> reporter: the president is trying to orchestrate a consensus behind his approach to deficit reduction. this is a group part of the national governors association executive committee. a diverse group. he carried three states he represents and governors include scott walker, leader of conservative governme
moynihan says that while business leaders are changing their behavior ahead of the f k fiscal cliff, consumers are not. one out of every two households is a customer. that's why it's great gauge of the economy. so far american consumers are still spending away and he says that you can thank at least in part an improving housing market for that. carl? >> all right. thank you very much, becky. great stuff. thank you for sticking around. >> thank you. >> sticking with the cliff,...
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Dec 3, 2012
12/12
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going over the fiscal cliff could cause major problems for state economies. which face the biggest threat from the potential tax hikes? joining us on the phone is laura porter, managing director at the public finance department, sector head for the state ratings group which focuses on state credits across the country. and focuses on a report, laura, looking granularly at this. good morning. >> good morning. thanks for having me. >> in general, you argue that a lot of ratings on the state front will remain unchanged no matter what. why is that? >> we feel states are fundamentally very strong credits, have strong control over their revenues and spending and the vast majority have shown the ability and willingness to adjust. so we think that the biggest and immediate threat is the fiscal cliff and what that can mean for state revenues, which quickly react to changing economy. >> you make the point -- surprise to no one, you have an unusually high degree of uncertainty in this outlook and that's because -- walk us through a scenario. we go over the cliff, and we
going over the fiscal cliff could cause major problems for state economies. which face the biggest threat from the potential tax hikes? joining us on the phone is laura porter, managing director at the public finance department, sector head for the state ratings group which focuses on state credits across the country. and focuses on a report, laura, looking granularly at this. good morning. >> good morning. thanks for having me. >> in general, you argue that a lot of ratings on the...